World Series G4: Rangers-D-backs Preview, Props, Prediction

League: MLB

Posted on: 31 Oct, 2023 at 10:47 PM

Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The Texas Rangers earned home-field advantage back with their 3-1 win in Game 3 of the World Series, and they will attempt to put a stranglehold on the series Tuesday night.

The Arizona Diamondbacks trail the series 2-1 ahead of their second home game at Chase Field in Phoenix.

This is shaping up as a bullpen game for both teams.

Left-hander Andrew Heaney (0-0) is set to make his third start and fifth appearance for the Rangers this postseason, with six innings pitched and four runs allowed on seven hits thus far.

The Diamondbacks counter with lefty Joe Mantiply, an All-Star in 2022 who made his first career World Series appearance with a scoreless inning in Game 1.

However, the bigger story might be Adolis Garcia with the Rangers' star slugger not in the starting lineup due to an oblique injury suffered Monday night.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 6, Rangers 4

The Rangers are consensus 1.5-run favorites, as they have been ahead of each World Series game thus far. Similar to the previous games, the run-line action as trended towards Texas with 64 percent of the money wagered at BetMGM, while Arizona's -110 moneyline has drawn 66 percent of the money.

The Rangers are also now -300 favorites to win the series, with their odds shortening from -130 before Game 3. Meanwhile, the D-backs are now +240 to claim their first title.

Rangers LHP Andrew Heaney Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings): The Over on Heaney's strikeout total is the most popular player prop at the book ahead of Game 4, but we like the Under. The D-backs aren't a big swing-and-miss team and Heaney has one strikeout in 6.0 innings pitched this postseason.

Texas took Game 3 Monday night 3-1 on the strength of its pitching and a two-run home run from Corey Seager, the one-time World Series MVP's second two-run home run of this series.

Pitchers Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc held the Diamondbacks to a run on six hits. Arizona had scored a combined 14 runs in the first two games of the series.

Heaney has a 6.00 earned run average and opponents are batting .292 against him this postseason. He went 10-6 with a 4.15 ERA in the regular season and made 28 starts, with nine wins as a starter.

Mantiply is 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA over eight career postseason appearances (all this season). He did not allow an earned run over his last six games of the regular season (8 1/3 innings) and had a 1.38 ERA over 10 games in September.

The Diamondbacks come off their first World Series game at their home ballpark in 22 years. They won the World Series in 2001, the franchise's only championship.

Arizona is 16-10 at home in the postseason all time.

The Diamondbacks used Kyle Nelson, Miguel Castro, Luis Frias and Andrew Saalfrank out of their bullpen in Game 3. That should leave them with their top relievers rested and available for Game 4 after Mantiply departs.

Ryne Nelson, Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and closer Paul Sewald are in line to pitch in Game 4, especially in a close game.

--The Rangers have opened the postseason with nine consecutive road wins, tying a Major League Baseball record.

--D-backs second baseman Ketel Marte has hit safely in each of his first 19 postseason games, the longest streak in MLB postseason history. He has 22 hits.

--"We're just showing up to play every day. We're trying to win that day. No matter where you are, we're trying to play good baseball every day. I don't know how to credit it to anything other than that, really." --Seager, on the Rangers' postseason success on the road.

--"At the end of the day we do have to be better. I think our offense is very capable against any type of pitching, whether it's a reliever or starter. We just got beat. We got beat. We got maybe out-executed. And we've got to figure that out." --Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo after Game 3.

--Field Level Media